Skopje, 12 June 2023 (MIA) — National gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 (and at a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.9 percent), according to an estimate published in the latest Macroeconomic Monitor by the research institute Finance Think.

This GDP growth, according to Finance Think, was achieved "in conditions of relatively solid growth in personal consumption (2.7 percent) and a sharp decline in gross investments (-22.3 percent)."

"Exports grew (7.1 percent) but imports recorded a relatively significant drop (-4.3 percent), which, together with the fall in investments, is a reflection of the high economic uncertainty," the report says.

According to Finance Think, public consumption continued to consolidate (-5.9 percent), which the researchers say corresponded with "the lower realized budget deficit compared to the planned one (only 8.2 percent over the entire quarter)."

"The economic slowdown can be seen in agriculture (0.1 percent) and industry (0.8 percent) as well as in several service industries, whereas construction and trade, transport and hotels recorded significant growth exceeding 10 percent," Finance Think's Macroeconomic Monitor says.

Inflation slowed to 16.1 percent in the first quarter of 2023, after reaching its peak of 19.3 percent in the previous quarter, according to the researchers.

"This slowdown, like the previous growth, was driven by easing global pressures on energy prices and prices across several food groups, but core inflation, which excludes these components, continues to show significant persistence, requiring a further tightening of monetary policy and exceptional fiscal policy prudence.

"Economic uncertainty remains, with heightened tendencies for slower economic activity in the remainder of the year," the publication says.

The researchers estimate that unemployment in the first quarter of 2023 was at 13.3 percent, continuing the downward trend.

"Structural methodological changes occurred in the series, however, which is why a direct comparison with previous figures is not possible," they note.

"Employment is at 45.1 percent, whereas labor market activity is at 52 percent," they say, adding that "the exact dynamics cannot be pinpointed, but it appears that the labor market trend, set by the decline of the total, able-bodied and employed population and the prolonged passivization of the labor market that started with the pandemic, continues."

The research institute has reduced its projected GDP growth for 2023 to 2 percent from the previous 2.4 percent, and its projected price growth of 8.9 percent remains unchanged. mr/